Daily US market macros and economy outlook


2		Macro Outlook
3	First to slow		October '23	September '23	August '23	July '23	June '23	May '23	April '23	March '23	February '23	January '23	December '22	November '22	October '22	September '22	August '22	July '22	June '22	May '22	April '22	March '22	February '22	January '22	December '21	November '21	October '21
4	1	NAHB Housing Index	34	40	44	50	56	55	50	45	44	42	35	31	33	38	46	49	55	67	69	77	79	81	83	84	83
5	2	US Building Permits	1.487	1.471	1.541	1.443	1.441	1.496	1.417	1.437	1.482	1.354	1.409	1.402	1.555	1.588	1.586	1.658	1.701	1.708	1.795	1.877	1.817	1.898	1.948	1.775	1.727
6	3	ISM Manufacturing New Orders	45.5	49.2	46.8	47.3	45.6	42.6	45.7	44.3	47	42.5	45.1	47.2	49.2	47.1	51.3	48	49.2	55.1	53.5	53.8	61.7	57.9	61	61.4	60.6
7	4	CB Consumer Confidence	102	102.6	103	106.1	117	109.7	102.3	101.3	104.2	102.9	107.1	108.3	100.2	102.5	108	103.2	95.7	98.7	106.4	107.3	107.2	110.5	113.8	115.8	109.5	113.8	109.3	113.8	129.1	127.3	117.2	121.7	109.7	91.3	89.3	88.6	96.1	100.9	101.8	84.8	92.6	98.1	86.6	86.9	120	130.7	131.6	126.5	125.5	125.9
8	5	ISM Services New Orders	55.5	51.8	57.5	55	55.5	52.9	56.1	52.2	62.6	60.4	45.2	56	56.5	60.6	61.8	59.9	55.6	57.6	54.6	60.1	56.1	61.7	61.5	69.7	69.7
9	6	US Manufacturing PMI	46.7	49	47.6	46.4	46	46.9	47.1	46.3	47.7	47.4	48.4	49	50.2	50.9	52.8	52.8	53	56.1	55.4	57.1	58.6	57.6	58.8	61.1	60.8
10	7	Core Durable Goods (MoM)	#NAME?
11	8	Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.68%	-0.16%	0.06%	0.13%	-0.37%	0.14%	0.35%	0.18%	0.88%	1.51%	0.59%	1.85%	3.10%	4.51%	3.10%	3.01%	3.19%	3.66%	4.59%	4.43%	5.67%	1.77%	2.80%	4.20%	3.59%
12	9	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	4.10%	4.30%	4.29%	4.33%	4.41%	4.34%	4.38%	4.30%	4.68%	4.39%	4.77%	4.99%	4.88%	5.07%	5.36%	5.45%	5.40%	5.53%	5.76%	5.92%	5.26%	5.72%	5.01%	5.36%	5.45%
13	10	US Nonfarm Payrolls	150	297	165	236	105	281	217	217	248	472	239	290	324	350	352	568	370	364	254	414	904	364	569	614	781
14	11	Services ex shelter, food, energy	#NAME?
15	12	Core CPI (YoY)	5.70%	6.07%	6.19%	6.83%	6.85%	7.14%	6.83%	6.19%	6.16%	5.77%	6.36%	6.30%	6.42%	6.47%	6.22%	6.18%	5.82%	5.94%	6.16%	5.73%	5.20%	4.38%	4.27%	4.01%	3.46%
16	13	Core PCE (YoY)	3.68%	3.84%	4.29%	4.28%	4.69%	4.76%	4.78%	4.84%	4.90%	4.87%	5.09%	5.33%	5.47%	5.21%	4.96%	5.19%	5.07%	5.25%	5.55%	5.57%	5.37%	5.24%	4.95%	4.50%	4.07%
17
18		Inflation Overview
19		US CPI (YoY)	3.24%	3.70%	3.67%	3.18%	2.97%	4.05%	4.93%	4.98%	6.04%	6.41%	6.45%	7.11%	7.75%	8.20%	8.26%	8.52%	9.06%	8.58%	8.26%	8.54%	7.87%	7.48%	7.04%	6.81%	6.22%
20		Food at Home	325.34	324.37	323.62	322.84	322.07	321.73	321.08	321	320.95	319.72	318.11	316.69	314.95	312.82	310.41	307.87	304.57	301.55	298.28	295.89	293.19	290.32	287.94	286.17	283.91
21		Energy	286.88	294.09	289.67	274.35	274.04	272.4	282.54	280.96	291.21	292.84	287.18	296.25	300.48	295.5	300.74	312.89	328.34	307.18	297.19	300.1	277.45	270.15	268.08	261.83	255.28
22		Used Car	187.25	188.77	193.67	196.09	198.75	199.65	191.2	183.06	184.68	189.94	193.69	197.63	201.64	205.16	207.44	207.82	209.54	208.45	204.63	206.04	213.7	214.91	211.88	204.01	197.65
23		Shelter	386.54	385.26	382.78	381.68	380.01	378.62	376.53	374.95	372.87	370.07	367.36	364.48	362.16	359.56	356.91	354.53	352.51	350.49	348.33	346.61	344.88	342.95	341.8	340.36	338.77
24		US PCE (YoY)	3.44%	3.45%	3.40%	3.20%	3.96%	4.45%	4.44%	5.19%	5.48%	5.44%	5.93%	6.35%	6.56%	6.52%	6.62%	7.12%	6.69%	6.62%	6.89%	6.55%	6.30%	6.18%	5.99%	5.41%	4.81%
25		Commodity Prices (DBC)	#N/A
26		Crude Oil (USO)	#N/A
27		Gasoline (UGA)	#N/A
28		Natural Gas (UNG)	#N/A
29		Agriculture (DBA)	#N/A
30		Copper (CPER)	#N/A
31
32		Treasury
33		5y5y Forward Expectation	2.30%	2.31%	2.31%	2.31%	2.34%	2.33%	2.34%	2.38%	2.33%	2.33%	2.36%	2.36%	2.39%	2.46%	2.49%	2.46%	2.45%	2.46%	2.44%	2.48%	2.45%	2.47%	2.46%	2.42%	2.41%
34		5 years Treasury Rate	4.29%	4.38%	4.49%	4.44%	4.41%	4.44%	4.45%	4.43%	4.52%	4.42%	4.66%	4.65%	4.65%	4.51%	4.53%	4.60%	4.49%	4.65%	4.67%	4.82%	4.80%	4.76%	4.79%	4.89%	4.82%
35		2 years Treasury Rate	4.73%	4.84%	4.92%	4.89%	4.86%	4.89%	4.88%	4.83%	4.90%	4.80%	5.02%	5.04%	5.03%	4.93%	4.91%	4.93%	4.83%	4.98%	4.95%	5.07%	5.03%	4.99%	5.02%	5.08%	5.02%
36		5y TIPS breakeven	2.15%	2.12%	2.21%	2.21%	2.19%	2.26%	2.23%	2.20%	2.24%	2.23%	2.29%	2.28%	2.30%	2.29%	2.32%	2.35%	2.32%	2.35%	2.36%	2.40%	2.40%	2.39%	2.37%	2.40%	2.38%
37		Inflation Premium	-0.15%	-0.19%	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.15%	-0.07%	-0.11%	-0.18%	-0.09%	-0.10%	-0.07%	-0.08%	-0.09%	-0.17%	-0.17%	-0.11%	-0.13%	-0.11%	-0.08%	-0.08%	-0.05%	-0.08%	-0.09%	-0.02%	-0.03%
38		Real Risk Premium	#N/A	4.10%	4.22%	4.16%	4.10%	4.05%	4.06%
39		20y Volatility Index	17.88	17.61	17.58	17.60	17.60	18.10	18.62	18.63	19.37	19.91	20.49	21.13	20.14	20.92	20.12	20.67	20.90	21.66	22.34	22.37	23.43	24.77	25.08	25.56	26.29
40
41		Recession Watch
42		Fixed Residential Investment	3.90%	3.90%	4.00%	4.10%	4.40%	4.80%	4.90%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.70%	4.40%	4.10%	4.00%	3.90%	3.90%	3.80%	3.80%	3.90%	3.90%	4.00%	3.90%	4.00%	3.90%
43		Fed Funds / 2 Years	-0.60%	-0.49%	-0.41%	-0.44%	-0.47%	-0.44%	-0.45%	-0.50%	-0.43%	-0.53%	-0.31%	-0.29%	-0.30%	-0.40%	-0.42%	-0.40%	-0.50%	-0.35%	-0.38%	-0.26%	-0.30%	-0.34%	-0.31%	-0.25%	-0.31%
44		Continuing Claims	#NAME?
45		Atlanta Fed GDPNow	#NAME?
46		Temp Workers Hiring	#NAME?
47
48		Liquidity
49		National Financial Conditions Index	-0.5046	-0.4731	-0.4291	-0.3802	-0.3315	-0.2967	-0.2777	-0.2725	-0.2745	-0.2809
50
51		CPI Forecast (WIP)
52		CPI Forecast (MoM)	Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous
53			#N/A
54
55		Trueflation	Date	Current estimate	BLS official
56			#NAME?
57
58		Cleveland Nowcast
59		› Inflation, MoM change	Month	CPI	Core CPI	PCE	Core PCE	Updated
60			November 2023	-0.01	0.33	0.09	0.29	11/29
61			October 2023			0.11	0.22	11/29
62
63		Fed funds rate	5.33%
64		Total US Equity Risk Premium	#N/A

A collection of financial sheets for personal trading. Not an investment advice.

macroupdate.com Macro outlook on US economy updated daily impliedranges.com Weekly and monthly implied ranges of US equities


1	Name	Avg Week Vol	Avg Month Vol	Weekly Range Ratio	Month Range Ratio	Week	Month	Curr Vol (cVol)	cVol - avgMVol
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27	stdDev	1
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29	week date	2023-7-31
30	month date	2023-7-31
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A collection of financial sheets for personal trading. Not an investment advice.

macroupdate.com Macro outlook on US economy updated dailyimpliedranges.com Weekly and monthly implied ranges of US equities

macroupdate.com Macro outlook on US economy updated daily impliedranges.com Weekly and monthly implied ranges of US equities