Daily US market macros and economy outlook


2		Macro Outlook
3	First to slow		January '23	December '22	November '22	October '22	September '22	August '22	July '22	June '22	May '22	April '22	March '22	February '22	January '22	December '21	November '21	October '21	September '21	August '21	July '21	June '21	May '21	April '21	March '21	February '21	January '21
4	1	NAHB Housing Index	35	31	33	38	46	49	55	67	69	77	79	81	83	84	83	80	76	75	80	81	83	83	82	84	83	86
5	2	US Building Permits	1.33	1.351	1.512	1.564	1.542	1.685	1.696	1.695	1.823	1.879	1.857	1.841	1.896	1.729	1.698	1.615	1.772	1.655	1.661	1.691	1.765	1.773	1.743	1.843	1.73	1.682
6	3	ISM Manufacturing New Orders	42.5	45.1	47.2	49.2	47.1	51.3	48	49.2	55.1	53.5	53.8	61.7	57.9	61	61.4	60.6	66.7	66.7	64.9	66	67	64.3	68	64.8	61.1	67.5
7	4	CB Consumer Confidence	107.1	108.3	100.2	102.5	108	103.2	95.7	98.7	106.4	107.3	107.2	110.5	113.8	115.8	109.5	113.8	109.3	113.8	129.1	127.3	117.2	121.7	109.7	91.3	89.3	88.6	96.1	100.9	101.8	84.8	92.6	98.1	86.6	86.9	120	130.7	131.6	126.5	125.5	125.9	125.1	135.1	135.7	121.5	134.1	129.2	124.1	131.4	120.2	128.1	135.7
8	5	ISM Services New Orders	60.4	45.2	56	56.5	60.6	61.8	59.9	55.6	57.6	54.6	60.1	56.1	61.7	61.5	69.7	69.7	63.5	63.2	63.7	62.1	63.9	63.2	67.2	51.9	61.8	57.2
9	6	US Manufacturing PMI	47.4	48.4	49	50.2	50.9	52.8	52.8	53	56.1	55.4	57.1	58.6	57.6	58.8	61.1	60.8	61.1	59.9	59.5	60.6	61.2	60.7	64.7	60.8	58.7	60.5
10	7	Core Durable Goods (MoM)	5.63%	-1.75%	0.68%	0.30%	0.16%	-0.08%	2.22%	0.87%	0.42%	-3.14%	-1.74%	1.60%	1.16%	3.19%	0.17%	-0.38%	1.33%	0.50%	0.80%	3.21%	-0.72%	-2.18%	-0.79%	3.56%	1.30%	1.21%
11	8	Industrial Production (YoY)	1.65%	2.18%	3.39%	4.99%	3.60%	3.58%	3.75%	4.40%	5.30%	4.76%	6.94%	2.90%	3.69%	4.99%	4.68%	3.93%	4.91%	5.91%	9.20%	16.23%	17.60%	1.45%	-5.03%	-1.81%	-3.42%	-4.77%
12	9	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	4.43%	4.81%	4.99%	4.88%	5.07%	5.36%	5.45%	5.40%	5.53%	5.76%	5.92%	5.26%	5.72%	5.01%	5.36%	5.45%	4.91%	4.41%	4.25%	3.98%	2.26%	0.63%	4.38%	5.22%	5.24%	5.50%
13	10	US Nonfarm Payrolls	517	260	290	324	350	352	568	370	364	254	414	904	364	569	614	781	557	663	769	693	482	286	784	575	472	-115
14	11	Services ex shelter, food, energy	3.51%	3.98%	4.02%	4.33%	4.36%	4.49%	4.57%	4.46%	4.57%	4.57%	4.75%	4.90%	5.20%	5.06%	5.08%	5.05%	5.25%	5.27%	5.32%	5.38%
15	12	Core CPI (YoY)	6.36%	6.30%	6.42%	6.47%	6.22%	6.18%	5.82%	5.94%	6.16%	5.73%	5.20%	4.38%	4.27%	4.01%	3.46%	2.92%	3.21%	1.82%	2.29%	1.93%	1.29%	1.10%	0.92%	1.48%	1.38%	1.10%
16	13	Core PCE (YoY)	4.42%	4.68%	5.05%	5.20%	4.93%	4.70%	5.04%	4.88%	5.03%	5.36%	5.42%	5.21%	5.04%	4.82%	4.31%	3.92%	3.88%	3.87%	3.80%	3.52%	3.12%	2.05%	1.56%	1.57%	1.46%	1.35%
17
18		Inflation Overview
19		US CPI (YoY)	6.45%	7.11%	7.75%	8.20%	8.26%	8.52%	9.06%	8.58%	8.26%	8.54%	7.87%	7.48%	7.04%	6.81%	6.22%	5.39%	5.25%	5.37%	5.39%	4.99%	4.16%	2.62%	1.68%	1.40%	1.36%	1.17%
20		Food at Home	317.4	316.55	314.98	313.1	310.66	308.22	304.87	301.88	298.38	295.81	292.91	289.96	287.44	286.05	283.91	281.47	278.97	277.88	276.07	274.09	272.83	271.86	271.43	271.04	270.47	269.56
21		Energy	282.07	295.28	300.01	294.7	301.04	316.96	332.09	308.84	297.23	305.47	275.17	265.93	263.55	261.26	255.01	245.85	242.96	238.45	234.62	229.87	228.37	231.13	218.94	209.33	203.65	196.36
22		Used Car	191.53	196.54	202.51	207.53	209.78	210	210.86	207.52	203.78	204.56	212.64	213.17	210.09	203.32	198.48	193.63	194.64	196.97	196.88	178.8	166.04	151.17	150.65	151.71	153.04	154.74
23		Shelter	367.53	364.62	362.27	359.57	356.89	354.45	352.55	350.42	348.29	346.52	344.76	342.97	341.96	340.48	338.86	337.3	335.89	335.26	333.81	332.32	331.27	330.03	329.12	328.59	328.23	327.77
24		US PCE (YoY)	5.02%	5.54%	6.08%	6.29%	6.26%	6.39%	6.98%	6.52%	6.41%	6.77%	6.39%	6.12%	5.97%	5.85%	5.22%	4.65%	4.52%	4.28%	4.09%	4.02%	3.65%	2.55%	1.70%	1.42%	1.23%	0.99%
25		Commodity Prices (DBC)	24.4	24.06	25.36	25.5	24.45	25.17	25.58	26.77	28.94	27.95	26.23	24.83	22.51	20.86
26		Crude Oil (USO)	67.36	67.64	70.45	73.12	67.89	70.95	75.13	81.67	85.54	78.38	74.17	71.82	62.53	54.83
27		Gasoline (UGA)	59.18	57.07	56.6	61.54	55.99	51.7	60.15	70.26	75.85	62.75	55.93	54.66	47.53	41.57
28		Natural Gas (UNG)	8.5	12.78	20.87	18.84	22.46	31.74	28.5	19.31	29.79	26	19.92	16.11	17.1	12.77
29		Agriculture (DBA)	20.09	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	22	22	22	21	20	20
30		Copper (CPER)	25	23	23	21	21	21	21	22	26	26	29	28	27	27
31
32		Treasury
33		5y5y Forward Expectation	2.17%	2.17%	2.18%	2.21%	2.21%	2.28%	2.33%	2.34%	2.30%	2.25%	2.28%	2.23%	2.19%	2.15%	2.16%	2.16%	2.21%	2.25%	2.28%	2.26%	2.24%	2.22%	2.23%	2.23%	2.27%	2.23%
34		5 years Treasury Rate	3.81%	3.67%	3.49%	3.48%	3.63%	3.68%	3.62%	3.58%	3.54%	3.58%	3.61%	3.56%	3.48%	3.43%	3.60%	3.60%	3.53%	3.66%	3.72%	3.66%	3.69%	3.90%	3.85%	3.94%	3.99%	3.92%
35		2 years Treasury Rate	4.44%	4.30%	4.09%	4.09%	4.21%	4.25%	4.19%	4.17%	4.11%	4.12%	4.21%	4.14%	4.09%	4.06%	4.18%	4.22%	4.12%	4.20%	4.24%	4.19%	4.24%	4.45%	4.36%	4.40%	4.41%	4.48%
36		5y TIPS breakeven	2.33%	2.27%	2.26%	2.29%	2.27%	2.30%	2.33%	2.32%	2.28%	2.29%	2.28%	2.23%	2.21%	2.09%	2.18%	2.20%	2.21%	2.21%	2.20%	2.18%	2.18%	2.22%	2.21%	2.29%	2.33%	2.30%
37		Inflation Premium	0.16%	0.10%	0.08%	0.08%	0.06%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.02%	-0.02%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	-0.06%	0.02%	0.04%	0.00%	-0.04%	-0.08%	-0.08%	-0.06%	0.00%	-0.02%	0.06%	0.06%
38		Real Risk Premium	5.78%	4.10%	4.22%	4.16%	4.10%	4.05%	4.06%
39		20y Volatility Index	18.53	18.39	17.63	18.15	18.80	18.78	19.52	18.51	19.87	20.19	20.23	20.34	20.88	20.85	20.70	21.57	20.41	21.32	22.09	22.08	22.06	21.74	22.82	23.13	23.37
40
41		Recession Watch
42		Fixed Residential Investment	4.00%	4.30%	4.60%	4.80%	4.70%	4.70%	4.80%	4.80%	4.70%	4.30%	4.10%	4.00%	3.80%	3.80%	3.80%	3.80%	3.80%	3.90%	4.00%	3.90%	3.90%	3.90%	3.90%	3.90%	3.80%	3.70%
43		Fed Funds / 2 Years	-0.14%	-0.28%	-0.49%	-0.49%	-0.37%	-0.33%	-0.39%	-0.41%	-0.47%	-0.46%	-0.37%	-0.44%	-0.49%	-0.52%	-0.40%	-0.36%	-0.46%	-0.38%	-0.34%	-0.39%	-0.34%	-0.13%	-0.22%	-0.18%	-0.17%
44		Atlanta Fed GDPNow	3.24%	5.16%	3.01%	0.22%	1.84%	0.07%	2.87%	1.30%	2.32%	3.12%	0.34%	2.66%	2.69%	3.49%	0.09%	2.43%	1.06%	1.01%	0.62%	1.83%	1.83%
45		TSA Screening	30.97%	27.69%	22.89%	19.30%	32.79%	51.65%	34.08%	27.26%	25.51%	24.58%	54.06%	29.43%	33.85%	39.21%	46.57%	40.48%	29.48%	32.85%	37.56%	35.54%	38.72%	37.46%	24.14%	41.29%	26.39%	32.03%	41.40%	38.46%	47.96%	38.20%
46
47		Liquidity
48		National Financial Conditions Index	-0.4089	-0.4046	-0.3918	-0.3661	-0.3360	-0.3024	-0.2692	-0.2403	-0.2145	-0.1891
49
50		CPI Forecast (WIP)
51		CPI Forecast (MoM)	Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous
52			Feb 14, 2023 (Jan)	8:30		0.50%	-0.10%
53
54		Trueflation	Date	Current estimate	BLS official
55			2023-02-08	5.2495	7.1	7.1
56
57		Cleveland Nowcast
58		› Inflation, MoM change	Month	CPI	Core CPI	PCE	Core PCE	Updated	Updated
59			February 2023	0.68	0.45	0.5	0.35	02/07	01/05
60			January 2023	0.63	0.46	0.47	0.36	02/07
61
62		Fed funds rate	4.58%
63		Total US Equity Risk Premium	5.94%